Canada’s 45th general election has significantly shaken up the composition of the House of Commons.
The historic vote saw the emergence of a two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the collapse of NDP support and some rather significant incumbent losses.
Here are five takeaways from Monday’s election.
Final results still not clear
Liberal Leader Mark Carney will form government but whether it will be in a minority or majority Parliament still remains unclear.
At the time of writing, the Liberals were elected or leading in 167 seats — just short of the 172 needed to form a majority.
Over a dozen seats were still too close to call when Elections Canada decided to pause counting after 3 a.m. ET. A majority is still possible if the final polls bend the Liberals’ way.
Didn’t watch election results? CBC’s Ashley Fraser explains how the 45th Canadian federal election night unfolded.
NDP collapse and the 2-horse race
When the dust settles, the main story of the 2025 election will likely be the two-horse race that developed between the Liberals and Conservatives.
A large part of the race developing into a showdown between the two parties had to do with the collapse of NDP support, and to a lesser extent a downturn in the Bloc’s fortunes.
Shortly after midnight in B.C., Jagmeet Singh said he would be stepping down with the NDP set to lose official party status in the House and Singh himself set to lose his own seat.
Jagmeet Singh announces that he is stepping down as leader of the NDP as soon as an interim leader can be named. At the time of his announcement, Singh was trailing in his B.C. riding of Burnaby Central.
The Liberals and Conservatives were both able to feast on the lack of NDP and Bloc support.
The Conservatives picked up a number of traditionally orange seats, especially in blue-collar ridings like Ontario’s Windsor West and Manitoba’s Elmwood-Transcona.
The Liberals, on the other hand, picked up NDP seats in B.C. ridings. But the collapse of the NDP was also on full display in ridings where the Liberals held their seats. In Halifax, for example, the NDP have won or placed second in the riding since 2004, but trailed in third after Monday’s election.
The Liberals also ate up seats from the Bloc, including in the South Shore area of Montreal. Those pickups helped offset losses elsewhere, specifically in Ontario.
2 leaders without seats?
The Liberals also picked up NDP seats in B.C. — including Singh’s own riding.
But Singh wasn’t the only leader trailing in his riding. At the time of writing, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was more than 3,000 votes behind Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, an electoral district he’s represented since 2004. Poilievre had been trailing in the vote count all night.
While Singh resigned, Poilievre signalled his intention to stay on.
“It will be an honour to continue to fight for you and be a champion for your cause as we go forward,” he said.
The decision to stay or go for both leaders likely came down to seat count. The NDP lost official party status in the House, while Poilievre’s party increased its tally by nearly two dozen seats — boosting the Conservative popular vote share at the same time.
Conservatives outperform in Ontario
Although they didn’t win government, the Conservatives outperformed most polls, especially in vote-rich Ontario.
Heading into Monday’s election, Conservatives were averaging 41 per cent support in Canada’s biggest province, according to CBC’s Poll Tracker. But the party appears to have garnered closer to 45 per cent of the vote in Ontario.
In terms of seat count, the party was able to wrestle away a number of ridings from both the NDP and Liberals.
Poilievre’s party was able to break through in the 905 region surrounding Toronto — in Richmond Hill, Vaughn, Brampton and York — while also snagging NDP seats in Windsor and London.
Federal, provincial conservative tensions
Speaking of Ontario, Conservative tensions with their provincial counterparts were on full display before election night.
Kory Teneyke — of the country’s top Conservative strategists who just helped Ontario Premier Doug Ford win a sizable majority government — had publicly criticized the federal Conservative campaign, accusing the party of not adequately addressing the U.S. trade war.
Ford himself backed his campaign manager up when speaking to reporters earlier this month.
“Sometimes the truth hurts,” Ford said of Teneyke’s criticisms.
Once the polls started rolling in on Monday night, showing a better-than-expected result for the Conservatives — especially in Ontario — one Conservative candidate went off on Ford.
Jamil Jivani, the Conservative incumbent for Bowmanville-Oshawa North who is known for his friendship with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, is projected to win his seat. During an interview with CBC’s David Common, Jivani made some sharp remarks about Ontario Premier Doug Ford, saying that he’s ‘not doing anything particularly well.’
“I think Doug Ford is a problem for Ontario and for Canada,” Jamil Jivani told CBC News after winning the Ontario riding of Bowmanville-Oshawa North.
“This guy’s a political genius because he beat [Ontario Liberal Leader] Bonnie Crombie and [former Ontario Liberal leader] Steven Del Duca? And now we got to sit around and get advice from him?” Jivani asked rhetorically.
“He has taken the provincial conservatives and turned it into something hollow.”
Jivani called Ford an “opportunist” and said the people around him are “goons.” His remarks, when played at the Conservative party HQ in Ottawa, prompted cheers.
Beyond tensions with Ford, the federal Conservative campaign also had tensions with Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, who was notably absent from Poilievre’s rally in Trenton, N.S., last week.
