Will a Canadian university QB get picked in the NFL draft?

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The first round of the NFL draft takes place tonight in Green Bay. Not to spoil the show, which seems to get bigger and bigger every year, but it’s pretty clear who the top picks will be.

Basically every mock draft you read starts with the exact same four selections. The Tennessee Titans choose University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward first overall, then the Cleveland Browns use the second pick on Heisman Trophy-winning two-way star Travis Hunter of Colorado, the New York Giants grab ferocious Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter at No. 3, and the New England Patriots take LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell fourth to protect young quarterback Drake Maye, who was last year’s third-overall pick.

After that, it gets more interesting. For example, some draft experts have tackle-busting Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty going as high as fifth to Jacksonville, while others see him falling to Las Vegas at No. 6 or even Chicago with the 10th pick.

The one guy everyone seems genuinely stumped about is Shedeur Sanders. Much like his Hall of Fame dad Deion, who coached him at Colorado, Sanders has become somewhat of a polarizing figure. Some think he’ll make a solid NFL quarterback and should be drafted fairly early in the first round, while others believe his shortage of arm strength and athleticism (ironic, considering his genes) and perhaps overabundance of confidence (he is very much Deion’s son) make him unworthy of a high pick. The trendy prediction at the moment is that the QB-desperate Pittsburgh Steelers will roll the dice on Sanders at No. 21.

Another matter of interest, at least on this side of the border, is how many Canadians will be chosen. A record five got picked in 2023 — including Cincinnati running back Chase Brown, who broke through last season with 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns, and his twin brother Sydney Brown, who just won the Super Bowl as a backup safety with Philadelphia.

Four Canadians were drafted last year — led by offensive lineman Isaiah Adams, who went in the third round to Arizona and played 15 games, including five starts. Fourth-round tight end Theo Johnson made 29 catches for 339 yards and a touchdown for the Giants, while fifth-round defensive back Qwan’Tez Stiggers appeared in 14 games, mostly on special teams, for the Jets.

It appears the downward trend in the number of Canadians picked may continue this year. My CBC Sports colleague Dion Caputi, a real draft nut who follows prospects year-round, sees maybe three getting taken before the seven-round draft wraps up on Saturday. But it’s an interesting group, featuring a receiver who roasted Travis Hunter, a quarterback who led Indiana to a surprising playoff berth, and a QB looking to make the improbable leap from Canadian university football to the NFL.

Here are Dion’s takes on the three Canadians most likely to get drafted and when they might come off the board.

Elic Ayomanor, wide receiver, Stanford

Barring unimaginable circumstances, Ayomanor will be the first Canadian selected. After a knee injury led to a medical redshirt year that prolonged the start of his Stanford career, the Medicine Hat, Alta., native returned in 2023 to lead all Cardinal players in receptions (62), receiving yards (1,013) and receiving touchdowns (6).

Ayomanor’s standout redshirt-freshman season featured a heroic 13-catch, 294-yard, three-touchdown performance in a 46-43 win over the Colorado Buffaloes, with the Canadian getting the best of star cornerback Travis Hunter (the likely No. 2 pick in this year’s draft) on multiple occasions. In 2024, he also had 63 catches and another six touchdowns but only 831 yards for a poor Stanford team that won only six games across his two seasons in the lineup.

At nearly 6-foot-2 and 206 pounds, Ayomanor combines a sturdy physical build with downfield explosion and quality route-running skills. He’ll remind some of another Canadian-born NFL receiver in new Bills signee Joshua Palmer, only Ayomanor is a superior overall athlete.

Projection: The question is, can he break into the latter portion of Day 2? If not, it shouldn’t be long until he’s selected on Day 3, likely in the fourth round.

Kurtis Rourke, quarterback, Indiana

The younger brother of B.C. Lions passer Nathan Rourke followed a similar path by quarterbacking Ohio for three seasons. Kurtis led the Bobcats to consecutive 10-win seasons before transferring to Indiana in 2024 to face elevated Big Ten competition. The Oakville, Ont., native was instrumental in leading the Hoosiers to an 11-2 record and the school’s first College Football Playoff appearance while playing the entire season on a torn ACL.

Not short on toughness, Rourke also returned after missing just one game due to a broken thumb on his throwing hand. What he lacks in elite arm talent, he compensates for with his excellent ball security, poise under pressure and pocket-passing mechanics. Despite his prototypical size (6-foot-4, 220 pounds), a lack of tools likely limits how early Rourke will be picked.

Projection: His game isn’t predicated on mobility, so a torn ACL won’t limit his upside. Will the lack of a “plus” NFL arm prevent him from being drafted? Maybe, but he could go in round six or seven.

Taylor Elgersma, quarterback, Wilfred Laurier

Elgersma has already made history along his improbable journey to NFL draft consideration. After winning the Hec Creighton Trophy as the 2024 U Sports player of the year, he became the first Canadian-born quarterback invited to the coveted Senior Bowl — NCAA football’s primary pre-draft all-star game.

The nearly 6-foot-5, 216-pound native of London, Ont., didn’t disappoint, flashing his effortless downfield arm strength and firmly placing himself on the scouting radar south of the border. As a result, he’s now realistically vying to become the first quarterback ever selected in the NFL draft directly out of Canadian university football.

Last year, mammoth University of British Columbia offensive lineman Giovanni Manu stunningly went from a late-round/free-agent projection to a fourth-round pick of the Detroit Lions. While that ceiling is highly unlikely for Elgersma, it shows how the breadth of modern NFL scouting could benefit the captivating Golden Hawks passer.

Projection: All it takes is one team to see something compelling, especially in a quarterback class with minimal back-end appeal. Elgersma could go in round six or seven, but even if he’s not picked he should get an opportunity to make a team as an undrafted free agent.