Another year, another record for Alberta’s oil industry.
Oilsands production is on pace to reach an all-time high this year as production in northern Alberta is expected to grew by five per cent in 2025 compared to last year.
The latest forecast released Wednesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates average annual production of 3.5 million barrels per day this year. By 2030, production could reach 3.9 million barrels per day.
The increase in output from the oilsands is not driven by any large new projects, but instead by smaller expansions and improvements to existing operations.
“The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ continued emphasis on optimization — and the favourable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, in a statement.
“This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput,” Birn said.
North American oil prices have been especially volatile so far this year, reaching highs of nearly $75 US per barrel twice, while also falling below $60 on several occasions. Oil markets have reacted to many geopolitical events including tariffs and conflict in the Middle East.
The Trans Mountain expansion pipeline began operating last year, which has increased Canada’s ability to export more oil.
S&P’s forecast still expects oilsands production to plateau later this decade.
