Of the many proxy battlegrounds between Iran and the United States in the Middle East, Iraq is one of the most overlooked, at least outside the region.
But U.S. reaction to the reappearance on the political scene of former Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki — a candidate for the job once more — is a sharp reminder of the tightrope Iraq walks between the two.
The 75-year-old politician’s candidacy has become a lightning rod as the U.S. steps up efforts to reduce Iranian influence in Iraq.
“Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos,” U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social last month, after the Co-ordination Framework (CF), the main Shia bloc in Iraq’s Parliament, nominated al-Maliki.
“Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq,” wrote Trump. “And, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom.”
Al-Maliki responded in a post of his own, rejecting what he called “blatant American interference” in Iraq’s internal affairs.
Iran’s foreign affairs minister called the first round of indirect talks with U.S. officials over Iran’s nuclear program ‘a good start.’ But neighbouring countries continue to worry about a possible U.S. military strike triggering a broader regional war.
Trump has been threatening military action against Iran since early January — ordering a U.S. naval strike force to the region — initially over the killing of protesters in large anti-government demonstrations. He has since moved on to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, its ballistic missile stockpiles and its support of regional militias.
In nominating a-Malaki for prime minister, the Co-ordination Framework praised his “political and administrative experience.”
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the U.K.’s Chatham House think-tank, says the re-emergence of al-Maliki as a contender reflects an enduring Iranian influence in Iraq.
“Since leaving office, al-Maliki has kept close relations with Iran,” Mansour wrote in a recent Chatham House publication. “Among his acts as prime minister in 2014 was the formalization of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of armed groups.”
Critics say it opened a door that has allowed militias or non-state actors to infiltrate and influence the Iraqi political landscape.
Iranian support for proxies
Some of those groups are already in Washington’s crosshairs — especially now, as it has expanded its list of negotiating demands for Iran beyond the nuclear file to include an end to support for proxy militias across the Middle East.
“Some of these militias [now have political arms and] have participated in elections,” said Iraqi Kurdish politician Hoshyar Zebari, a former Iraqi foreign minister, finance minister and deputy prime minister, in an interview with CBC News at his home in Pirman, in northern Iraq.
“Now, in the Iraqi new Parliament they have over 70 seats, maybe more,” he said.
“They are under a lot of pressure, OK? And the United States have made it absolutely clear they would not deal with any Iraqi government that includes certain members of those militias who are wanted on the State Department terrorist list or on the Treasury list of sanctions.”
Zebari says some of the Shia militias have launched recruitment drives for potential suicide bombers to defend Iran in the event of a U.S. attack.
The most powerful Shia paramilitary group in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah (Battalions of the Party of God), has received funding and training from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps. Its political arm, Harakut Hoquq, won six seats in parliamentary elections held in November.
In a power-sharing structure negotiated after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the post of Iraqi president goes to a Kurd, prime minister to a Shia and the speaker to a Sunni.
Kurdish divisions over the choice of president have delayed the initial process of forming a government, while Washington’s objections to the CF’s nomination of al-Maliki for prime minister further complicate the picture.
Al-Maliki associated with ‘very bitter past’
There is plenty of internal opposition as well.
“On the whole, al-Maliki is associated with a very bitter past,” said Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, founder of the Middle East Research Institute, based in Erbil, northern Iraq.
Names mentioned as possible alternatives to al-Malaki from within the Co-ordination Framework include current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani and intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri.
Ala’Aldeen says even the Shia themselves are divided over al-Maliki.
He served two terms as prime minister between 2006 and 2014. After initially embracing him, the Americans pushed for his removal after he was accused of widespread corruption and fuelling sectarian divisions within Iraq, paving the way for the Islamic State, or ISIS.
“His premiership led to the departure of the Americans, led to the emergence of ISIS, led to tensions with the Kurds and almost confrontation,” said Ala’Aldeen. “Iraq was never the same after him.”
Now, focused on recovering from decades of conflict and hardship, many Iraqis fear any conflict between the U.S. and Iran will inevitably find its way across the border into Iraq.
“What did Iraq do to deserve being a battleground for Iran?” asked Sabiha Ismail, a school principal in her 70s originally from the Baghdad area and now working in Erbil.
“We want the Iraqi leaders to be leaders,” she said. “We don’t want them to be Iranian proxies.”
The oil factor
Plenty of Iraqis are also annoyed with what they see as U.S. bullying. But Trump has a powerful tool of persuasion at his disposal.
Since the U.S. invasion in 2003, Iraq’s oil revenues go through the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the government in Baghdad relies on them to pay for, among other things, public employee salaries.
Iraqi Kurds, often experts in the art of realpolitik, are walking their own fine line.
“It’s an internal Shia matter who they nominate to become the new Iraqi prime minister,” said Niyaz Barzani, foreign affairs advisor to the president of the Kurdish region in Iraq, in an interview.
But “in our view it’s very important that Iraq further strengthens its relationships with the United States, economically, politically. And because the Americans, the U.S. government, can help the Iraqi government in a lot of different sectors.”
Even at the best of times Iraq has been known to take several months to form a government. Former foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari says this will be no exception.
“It’s not a done deal,” said Zebari. “It will be a complicated, long-drawn process.”
The question, of course, is whether that process will bring Iraqis closer together or leave them more fragmented than ever.
