In the days before his trip overseas, U.S. President Donald Trump moved rapidly to tamp down a long list of potential distractions that could overshadow his hugely significant visit to the Middle East.
Help broker a shaky ceasefire between nuclear powers India and Pakistan. Check.
Outline a plan to feed starving Gaza, even though international humanitarian groups have deemed it unworkable and insufficient. Check.
And obtain a promise from Houthi militants to stop attacking western shipping in the Red Sea, even though missile launches against Israel continue. Check.
Given the chaotic nature of his presidency and the surreal speed at which global events seem to move with Trump in charge at the White House, the quick wins he’s seeking may be fleeting.
Nonetheless, Trump is poised to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday on the first big international trip of his second term at both a precarious and opportune time.
Around two million people in Gaza are at risk of starvation because of Israel’s three-month-long blockade of the territory; sectarian violence in Syria has left that country teetering; and the spectre of a major war between Israel and Iran looms over the region.
And yet, Trump appears intent on parking — at least for this trip — some of those issues, preferring instead to focus on the region’s boardrooms and investment forums rather than its battlefields.
Along with the stop in Riyadh, Trump will also visit two other stable, wealthy Gulf countries: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He’ll attend business gatherings, presumably ink contracts and attempt to drum up big bucks in a region that has money to spend.
“It’s deals, deals, deals,” said Neil Quilliam of Chatham House, a London-based think-tank.
The United States and Great Britain announced plans for a trade deal on Thursday, that is expected to lower the financial burden on the U.K. of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. The deal, which is not yet finalized, will touch on everything from U.K. autos and steel to American beef.
“He seems to recognize the three Gulf countries … as key partners for the U.S. and he’s established very strong personal links, especially with [Saudi crown prince and de facto leader] Mohammed bin Salman.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS, as he’s known, has previously said his kingdom is prepared to invest more than $600 billion US in the United States during Trump’s term as president.
The other Gulf countries have also anted up, giving the deal-obsessed president the irresistible possibility of boasting about landing over a trillion dollars in new business.
No Israel
Notably, Trump has chosen to bypass Israel on his trip.
It’s a significant omission given the Jewish state’s status as one of the U.S.’s most important strategic allies — and perhaps also indicative of a deepening animus between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
On Thursday, the office of the UN Human Rights Commission put out a searing statement, imploring the world’s most powerful countries to intervene in Gaza, charging that they must end “the unfolding genocide or watch it end life in Gaza.”
In the past, Israel has refuted the accusations of genocide, slamming the UN as an antisemtic institution and claiming that its military does not deliberately target civilians.
By proposing a solution — establishing food hubs in Gaza run by U.S. contractors — Trump may be hoping to, if only temporarily, diffuse a significant trouble spot with his Gulf hosts.
His earlier musings about turning Gaza into a property developers’ dream “riviera” — what some human rights advocates likened to ethnic cleansing — was met with disgust throughout the Arab world.
And when Trump went on to suggest that Saudi Arabia could give up part of its desert to create a new Palestinian homeland, Prince Mohammed’s officials issued terse statements saying no way, never.
“My understanding is that in the public space, there’s going to be no conversation around this,” Quilliam said of Israel’s war in Gaza or the future of Palestinians.
“Across the Arab world, it’s the No. 1 issue. But I don’t see them [Trump and Prince Mohammed] butting heads or coming to any clear or common understanding. I think the emphasis of this visit is going to be economic.”
Powerful motivations
Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have powerful motivations to keep the focus squarely on money.
Under Prince Mohammed, the country is undertaking what amounts to an extreme makeover.
Saudi Arabia has a terrible reputation on human rights in the West.
Public beheadings — there were 128 in 2024 — and the 2018 murder and dismemberment of crown prince critic Jamal Khashoggi at the hands of Saudi security forces are just two of many examples human rights campaigners decry.
But others emphasize the social transformations in the kingdom in recent years that they see as positive.
Women are no longer shut out of jobs and public life. Mixing between men and women in public is now common. And wearing head or face coverings for women is optional, not mandatory.
Prince Mohammed has also been trying to position his country as a force for stability in the region and the world by mending fences with longtime arch rival Iran and attempting to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
But it’s with the crown prince’s efforts to transition his country away from oil to a more diversified economy that the Saudis may need U.S. help the most.
Many of Prince Mohammed’s outrageously expensive futuristic projects, such as the Neom city in the desert, are squeezing Saudi revenues.
Neom was initially pitched as a $500 million US venture, but last year the first phase alone was projected to cost more than $1.2 trillion, with the final bill for the immense linear glass city potentially topping $8 trillion.
So lining up safer bets, such as joint ventures with the U.S. over critical minerals, are now high on the Saudi shopping list for Trump’s visit.
No to normalization
Just as the two leaders likely won’t be resolving much on Gaza, they also likely won’t be talking about normalization with Israel.
Even after the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, U.S. officials under then-president Joe Biden continued to prod the Saudis into accepting a grand deal with Israel — diplomatic recognition in exchange for economic opportunities.
No longer, though.
“An Israeli-Saudi peace deal is almost certainly beyond reach in the foreseeable future,” Royal United Services Institute fellow H.A. Hellyer wrote recently.
“Riyadh knows Israel’s standing among Saudis, Arabs and Muslims globally has hit rock bottom. To then embrace Israel now would be an act of political self-immolation,” he said.
Besides, it seems the United States is prepared to drop its objections to a Saudi civilian nuclear program, removing one of the U.S.’s biggest bargaining chips to get Prince Mohammed to strike a deal with Israel.
The Middle East has played an unusually large role in the early weeks and months of Trump’s presidency, given the intense focus on Gaza, Iran and Arab deal making.
But in a new report, the Washington-based Middle East Institute said Trump’s “zigzagging style,” mixed messages and use of tariffs as an instrument of coercion have all combined to create immense confusion about U.S. objectives in the region.
For example, the institute says Trump expended considerable energy to initially cajole both Hamas and Israel into accepting a ceasefire — but that Trump has been unsuccessful at pressuring Israel to halt its war since Netanyahu broke the ceasefire three months ago.
The group gave Trump’s Israel policy an “F.”
It says Trump has done better on restarting nuclear talks with Iran (a “B” grade) but by promoting unworkable plans, such as the “Gaza Riviera,” the U.S. risks weakening its influence in the region at a critical time.
Trump may, however, have a few surprises up his sleeve.
The new president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also just happens to be in the region and there are hints the two men may meet in what would be a historic encounter.
For Trump, who values showmanship over most everything else, it may be too good an opportunity to pass up.
