Housing in Vancouver, health care in Nova Scotia, jobs in Alberta?
Not quite. When it comes to the big issues driving the popular vote, that’s way too simple.
Yet there are fascinating trends that emerge across the country when a person stops to chat. And that’s what CBC News did during this campaign.
- What issue matters the most to you this federal election, and why? Share your personal stories with us at [email protected].
Journalists carved out an extra hour or day here and there to spend more time just talking with Canadians to understand the backstory to their vote — what really matters to them.
We’ve been sharing these stories across our shows, and together, we learned a lot about Canada.
So as the election campaign wraps up, we took the opportunity to look back and tour Canada again through the eyes of voters, with a bit of statistical help to check our assumptions.
The data in this story comes from Pollara. In a series of polls throughout the campaign, the company asked voters what issues they’ll base their vote on. We’ve combined those polls to get a larger sample size, about 5,500 Canadians who responded through online panels and phone interviews between March 24 and April 21.
We also tapped Andrew Enns, vice-president of the polling company Leger, to walk through regional differences in the numbers.
Housing, addiction and cost of living are top issues in B.C.
In a province where softwood lumber is a major industry, tariffs were a big concern, as they are throughout Canada.
But one regional difference was that crime, homelessness and drug use also came up in B.C. frequently, and from voters with different perspectives on how to solve the issues. It’s having a polarizing effect on voters, said Enns.
At her barbershop in Kamloops, Deanna DeCicco put out her sandwich board sign and someone kicked a hole in it. That’s the kind of disorder she sees as fuelled by drug use and untreated mental illness.
“We, daily, have people screaming, open drug use,” she said, hoping for a change in government and a party that will take on these issues more aggressively.
In Vancouver, Trevor Jang is three years drug-free after a 15-year struggle to get there. He said he’s looking to hear a plan to support people through addiction.
When CBC journalists hit the streets in Langley, Surrey and on Vancouver Island in places such as Parksville, people also spoke about concerns such as keeping up with population growth. Housing is a prime example — some voters say it’s just too difficult to find what people need at a price they can afford.
“At least once a week, I cry in the office because I hear a story that just breaks my heart,” said Louise Taylor, who tries to help seniors find places to live in White Rock and South Surrey.
“It just shouldn’t be happening. We need more action from our government.”
So how will that determine who B.C. voters will elect on Monday? CBC’s poll tracker has the seat projections for the Liberals and Conservatives overlapping. The NDP are trailing, and the poll tracker questions if the Greens will hold on to their seat.
Voters in the North flag housing, infrastructure as issues
Tariffs, infrastructure and housing came up repeatedly when CBC checked in with voters across Canada’s northern territories.
Housing because it’s aging and there isn’t enough of it, said Merven Gruben, owner of E Gruben’s Transport in Tuktoyaktuk, N.W.T. “There’s probably five, six, 10 people in some houses that are 50 or 60 years old and getting condemned.”
“We always have a housing problem. I’d like to see that fixed,” said John Semple in Haines Junction, a village near Kluane National Park in the Yukon.
Housing and fighting U.S. President Donald Trump on the tariffs are his key issues, said Semple, who is voting Liberal.
Another theme in the North this election has been around infrastructure. Both Liberal and Conservatives promise investment in northern military bases and early warning surveillance plans. Some voters wondered if improved airports and housing would be designed to also benefit the existing community.
Cost of living concerns showed up here, particularly with heating fuel and groceries. When CBC journalists set up a speakers’ corner in downtown Whitehorse, they heard from residents looking for a leader to provide economic stability, and also support for those struggling with addiction.
Peter Eigeard was leaving a local gun shop with a new hunting rifle. He wanted the Conservatives to win and develop other markets for Canada’s natural resources.
“Oil and gas and mining … we’re too reliant on the United States,” he said. “And cut out some of the crazy spending.”
As for how that shapes the vote, less polling gets done in Canada’s North. The region has three seats, and so far, CBC’s poll tracker suggests the Liberals have a strong lead.
Jobs, economy and cost of living shape Prairies vote
In the Prairie provinces — Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba — inflation along with the cost of living was the biggest issue we heard about, even more than the U.S. tariffs. Or at least, when people mentioned tariffs, it was often in the context of the economy and job loss.
When taxes came up, voters were often looking for a way to reduce them to make life more affordable. Twenty to 25 per cent of people flagged taxes as a key issue.
Melissa Au in Okotoks, Alta., is a health-care worker who said she has started to drive for Uber on the side so she can keep paying for her kids to play hockey. And Ricky Gill, a 23-year-old who was installing siding on new homes in Calgary’s northeast, said inflation is the reason why he’s voting.
“I’m going to vote because the economy sucks. Inflation’s up, like 200 per cent,” said Gill. He plans to vote Conservative.
In Edmonton, CBC reporters hung out at a truck stop and heard tariffs were already impacting delivery jobs. They went to nearby Fort Saskatchewan and heard both a desire for more pipelines and for environmental protection. In Regina, CBC reporters went to a farm show and heard how Chinese tariffs are already impacting canola prices.
The Conservatives were often talked about in terms of giving hope.
“If the Liberals get in, I think, what’s gonna happen here? Western Canada is going to separate,” said Elsie Jensen, who blames the Liberals for economic challenges and was very upset at the narrowing in the polls.
But concerns for social services are also here. Health care is a big concern in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where 38 per cent of voters flag it as an issue shaping their vote.
“Health care is our top priority, maybe because of our age,” said Mona Sedleski, a voter in her 80s who was standing outside a grocery store with her husband in Winnipeg. “He was in the hospital [and] sat 13 hours in a chair about three weeks ago. It’s inhumane.”
She wants health-care transfers to be increased, and plans to vote NDP to counter the Conservatives.
In CBC’s poll tracker, the Conservatives are leading in all three provinces. The Liberals have a chance in about a quarter of the region’s seats.
Ontario vote shaped by the pain of tariffs, inflation
The impact of Trump’s tariffs feels immediate in some parts of Ontario, where local economies rely heavily on the auto industry. Those tariffs came up a lot in southern Ontario as CBC journalists stopped by a farmers’ market outside Kitchener-Waterloo and talked to people on the street.
But cost of living is also a big concern. Windsor resident and first time voter Lorrhea Marion works at a sushi restaurant.
“Honestly, it’s been kind of hard,” she said. “I went to Toronto for school and then I moved back home just because it’s really expensive.”
She’s also concerned about immigration, which has been less talked about this campaign but is still important for many. In Ontario, 15 per cent of respondents ranked immigration/refugees as a top issue in Pollara polls.
“I am a person of colour. I’m Filipino, my mom’s an immigrant. So seeing these things, it’s very scary and upsetting. Immigrants are very good for the economy,” she said.
In northern Ontario, CBC journalists spent time on Manitoulin Island with the Wiikwemkoong First Nation, where community members flagged the need to keep focusing on reconciliation, support for mental health and on welcoming Indigenous perspectives to collectively build a strong economy.
In Toronto and the GTA, voters have been told their votes might decide this election. But some are unsure if they’ll vote or not.
“I should.… I’m having a hard time [deciding] for who,” said Daniel Occhiuto, a voter in one of the ridings with historically the lowest voter turnout. He said people get discouraged when they vote and it doesn’t seem like it makes a difference.
Around Ottawa, the CBC’s Hallie Cotnam spoke with fans at a hockey game, where Connor Bailey said the Conservative’s “Axe The Tax” slogan resonated for him.
Cotnam hit the road to talk with business owners around Garrison Petawawa, where the promise of increased defence spending could boost the economy, and visited a truck stop near the Canada-U.S. border.
There, Surafel Demessie said he believes the Liberal leader is better to handle Trump, who can annex Canada “over our dead body.”
CBC’s poll tracker has the Liberals with a strong lead in Ontario, but the Conservatives are also expected to do well in some areas.
Quebec stares down Trump as a cultural threat
Trump’s tariff threats are on voters’ minds in Quebec, even more than affordability and inflation.
But the concern has a different flavour between Quebec and the Prairie provinces, for example. That’s what Leger pollster Andrew Enns sees when he compares answers on what issues are important, to how concerned voters are about the economic impact of tariffs and job loss.
“For Quebecers, it was really a cultural threat,” Enns said.
CBC News set up for the day at the Cafexo Boutique in Vaudreuil, outside Montreal. Many voters were focused on which party is best positioned to protect Canada, an issue that seems to have eaten away at support for the Bloc Quebecois.
“With Trump … he has a lot of power, and not knowing what is going to happen is kind of scary,” said university student Julianne Fortin, who studied in Florida and hadn’t decided who to vote for as of last week.
But countering Trump is key.
“We’re really lucky with what we have here and we don’t want someone to take that away from us,” she said.
In the western part of the province, in Outaouais, voters told CBC journalists the issues with Trump are so important they overshadow the fact Liberal Leader Mark Carney struggles with his French. And in northern Quebec, voters looked for federal support to fight violence and support those struggling with addiction.
Quebec is also a region where some voters say not enough attention has been paid to the environment. Twelve per cent of Quebec residents flagged protecting the environment or climate change as a key issue deciding their vote.
Other issues that were really important for a relatively smaller group of voters nationally were Israel/Gaza at two per cent, the Russia/Ukraine war at two per cent and corruption/government ethics at six per cent.
The CBC’s poll tracker is predicting the Liberals will win the most seats in Quebec, with the Bloc and Conservatives following.
Atlantic provinces: Tariffs and doctor shortage stand out
Heath care shows up as a top priority more often in the Atlantic provinces than anywhere else.
“We moved down here three to four years ago and we’re still on a waiting list,” said Steve White, who phoned the Maritime Noon call-in show from Bridgewater, N.S.
“Trying to see a doctor in a walk-in clinic, they have a call-in on Monday, and in half an hour, all the positions are booked.”
He sees a regulatory and training role for the federal government.
CBC’s The Signal asked parents in Newfoundland and Labrador for their take, and the state of the economy had many worried.
“Are our kids going to be better off than we are, than we were? I’m not so sure that’s entirely clear,” said Luke Quinton.
“There’s the cost of living crisis, housing crisis. I see tuition rates rising. I see a pulling back from good paying jobs with pensions. I think this question is still up in the air, and this is an important election to think about those things.”
Tariffs are also a key issue here, in a region that’s heavily dependent on American trade with seafood and other exports to the U.S. Tariffs play into concerns about the cost of living, but also, Trump’s comments got people upset. That has them looking for a strong leader.
Yeukai Katanda in Corner Brook, N.L., said, “I just feel like we’re being bullied and for me it’s just a principle of no, let’s stand up to a bully.”
So how is that shaping the vote?
Atlantic Canada has been a Liberal stronghold, and CBC’s poll tracker has the Liberal Party far ahead of the Conservatives in terms of projected seat count. The Conservatives are predicted to win between five and seven out of 32 seats.
Read more about what matters to Canadians this election at cbc.ca/whatmatters, and read personal stories of the vote written by Canadians in our First Person series.
