Against the backdrop of Russia’s three-year war in Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics are preparing to exit the Ottawa Treaty, the landmark agreement that saw 164 countries destroy their arsenals of landmines and ban future use.
But critics of the decision, including the Canadian who developed and promoted the agreement, warn this is more likely to harm the four countries’ civilians and economies than be a successful weapon in warfare.
In a joint statement released Tuesday, the defence ministers of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia recommended withdrawing from the landmine ban, citing the rising threat from Russia and its ally Belarus as the reason.
Although a final decision has yet to be voted on by their respective parliaments, the news has sparked concern in Europe, Canada and among human rights advocates, who warn this departure could undermine the lifesaving treaty established in 1999 — and set off a domino effect with other global agreements.
Latvia as a case study
Latvia signed the Ottawa Treaty in 2005 and committed to destroy its stockpile of anti-personnel mines (APMs). Abandoning the agreement would allow the Baltic country to add APMs to its weaponry once again.
Like Poland and its Baltic neighbours, Estonia and Lithuania, Latvia shares a border with Russia. In the joint statement this week, the defence ministers of the four countries said leaving the treaty will give their armies the “flexibility and freedom of choice” to use weapons like APMs, should they be required.
The statement comes months after the U.S. administration under Joe Biden approved sending landmines to Ukraine, saying the decision was a military one, as Russia deployed more foot soldiers in advance of tanks or other mechanical equipment. Though Ukraine also signed the Ottawa Treaty, it informed fellow signatories that it might make exceptions for occupied territories following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the BBC reported.
The rhetoric from Moscow and its invasion of Ukraine prompted the recommendation, said Imants Lieģis, diplomatic adviser to Latvia’s minister of defence, Andris Sprūds, noting that leaving the treaty has public support in his country.
“The situation has not improved on the question of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Russia’s hybrid attacks and Russia’s general aggression against European and other countries,” he said. “In addition, there have been certain concerns within Latvian society following the new administration coming into office in the United States.”
A decision to leave the Ottawa Treaty would not be taken lightly, Lieģis told CBC News.
Red Cross reacts
In their joint statement, the four countries’ defence ministers pledged to uphold international humanitarian law and to ensure civilians are protected from harm if their parliaments ratify a decision to withdraw from the treaty.
But the Red Cross has questioned how it’s possible to do two things that are in direct conflict.
The organization, which works specifically in war zones and sees first-hand the impact landmines have, said the recommendation is a major setback for the Ottawa Treaty.
U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to send anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine, in the second major foreign policy shift this week. Andrew Chang explains what we know about these landmines and why they’re so controversial.
In a recent interview, Red Cross chief spokesperson Christian Cardon also questioned the tactical decision from a military standpoint to use APMs, given they disproportionately harm civilians and not enemy soldiers.
“In 2024, the assessment was that 80 per cent of people affected by APMs were civilians … and among this 80 per cent, half of them were kids,” he said. “That’s the main issue.”
There are long-term consequences to the use of landmines, whose effects linger after the end of a war, Cardon said. Beyond the threat to human health, the unexploded devices become economic obstacles, since they make large swaths of land unusable for agriculture or tourism.
The Red Cross worries others may follow Poland and the Baltic states if they withdraw from the treaty and set a precedent for countries to abandon other humanitarian treaties as well. That’s why Cardon and his colleagues are urging states to reaffirm their commitment now.
The Canadian connection
It’s hardly surprising an agreement called the Ottawa Treaty has Canada in its DNA. The country’s former foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy played a pivotal role in creating, promoting and implementing the agreement.
He told CBC News he’s dismayed by the potential withdrawal of Poland and the Baltics from the treaty. But the veteran diplomat partly blames the U.S. for the defence ministers’ decision, saying the “trigger was pulled” when Biden agreed last year to provide landmines to Ukraine — and then worsened by the current president’s slashing of foreign aid and historic military support.
“That really sort of, for the first time, really shattered the norm, the standard which had been set,” Axworthy said. “I predicted at the time that there would be a snowball effect, a knock-on effect coming out of that.
“And of course that has been accentuated by Donald Trump going even further, which is to say that security guarantees for countries bordering on Russia have now basically been withdrawn.”
Like the Red Cross, Axworthy questions why Poland and the Baltics would want to reintroduce APMs to their arsenals. He also doubts their military efficacy and advocates for alternatives, like early-warning systems and drones, to address Russian aggression instead.
Perhaps more worryingly, the Canadian who helped create this lifesaving global agreement says he views the four countries’ potential withdrawal from it as part of a broader trend undermining the international legal order.
