The table is set for a consequential and close federal election this spring, which is largely expected to focus on how the leaders will take on U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and his taunting of Canadian sovereignty.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to ask Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament today, triggering a weeks-long election campaign.
Sources have confirmed to CBC News that election day will be Monday, April 28.
Just a few months ago, polls suggested Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was destined for a majority government. But the political landscape has been turned upside down since former prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation and Carney replaced him.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to dissolve Parliament and make an election call in days, according to sources. Andrew Chang breaks down what polls show about how U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war has affected the Liberals’ popularity, and the challenges that lie ahead for Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the lead-up to voting day.
Now, for the first time in nearly three years, the Liberals have inched ahead in the polls as support for the Conservatives and NDP slips, according to the CBC’s Poll Tracker, which aggregates public opinion polling.
It shows the Liberals would have a roughly three-in-four chance of winning the most seats if an election were held now. As of Sunday, they lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and have edged ahead in Ontario, polls suggest.
The Conservatives are nipping at their heels though.
Poilievre’s party enjoys wide leads in Alberta and the Prairies and are still ahead of the Liberals in British Columbia, according to the tracker.
The Liberals’ surge comes as the NDP’s popularity has fallen to its lowest level in decades and is at risk of losing party status. Recent polling suggests the Bloc Québécois is at risk of losing seats in Quebec, the one province where they run candidates, according to the Poll Tracker.
Trump’s tariffs casting shadow
The priorities of a federal campaign have also shifted since the re-election of Trump and the economic instability his return to the White House has caused.
The president escalated his trade war by imposing 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum entering the country, prompting Canada to effectively double its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
Trump’s next salvo is expected in the second week of the campaign, with the U.S. threatening another round of tariffs on April 2.
The parties have already been in campaign mode for months, but Sunday’s call sends them into overdrive as the two main leaders compete to define themselves as the best person to deal with the unpredictable president.
During a stop in Sudbury, Ont., last week, Poilievre positioned himself as a “tough guy” well suited to take on Trump.
“What Canadians need is a leader who’s tough, firm and stands by his convictions, a leader who will make us strong, self-reliant and able to stand on its own two feet, a leader who will put Canada first,” he said.
The Liberals are trying to paint Poilievre as Trump-lite.
In his victory speech after winning the party’s leadership, Carney said Poilievre would leave Canada “divided and ready to be conquered.”
“A person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him,” he said in one of his most vicious attacks against the Opposition leader.
CBC News chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton and Radio-Canada parliamentary bureau chief Louis Blouin update Power & Politics on how parties are positioning themselves to launch their campaigns.
Carney, who does not hold a seat in the House, is seeking a mandate from Canadians after winning the Liberal leadership two weeks ago. Sources told CBC News on Saturday he will run for a seat in the Ottawa riding of Nepean. Nepean is adjacent to Carleton, which is Poilievre’s riding.
As the former governor of the Bank of Canada during the global financial crisis and head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years, his campaign will likely touch on his background steering major economies during turbulent times.
But Carney, who has been prime minister for just over a week, is largely untested as a politician.
In a campaign-style event, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comment calling him ‘stupidly, no friend of mine.’ Poilievre called himself a ‘tough guy to deal with’ and said he’s best suited to take on the U.S. president.
Poilievre, who has served as an Ottawa MP since 2004 and won the leadership in 2022, has been waiting for this moment for years.
In his own words he can come off as too blunt, and he’s pitched himself as a leader to fix a “broken” Canada — accusing the Liberals of leading the country down a road of “chaos” and crime.
During Trudeau’s final years, Poilievre was keen for what he called a carbon tax election and promised to dump the controversial environmental policy for consumers.
Carney has largely removed that point of attack when he signed a prime ministerial directive instructing that the fuel charge be removed effective April 1 for consumers. But Poilievre continues to accuse Carney of trying to “hide” the tax. The price for big industrial emitters remains in place.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will be looking to attract progressive voters as Carney’s Liberals move to the centre, but so far the polls suggest that isn’t baring out.
The leader, however, is remaining positive.
“This is a very important election, and I know that Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre would want nothing better than for the NDP to disappear,” Singh said.
“We’re not going anywhere.”
This will be Singh’s third election as leader.
Conservatives breaking with media tradition
During this campaign, Canadians can expect to see less of longtime Green Party MP and co-leader Elizabeth May.
The party says co-leader Jonathan Pedneault, who doesn’t have a seat, will be the face of the party’s national election campaign, including at the debates.
According to the Poll Tracker, the Greens are polling around 3.6 per cent, ahead of the People’s Party of Canada which has just over two per cent of support.
With the start of the campaign just hours away, political reporters are preparing to hop on buses and planes to follow the main campaigns over the coming weeks — with an exception.
Last week, the Conservatives announced a plan to block political reporters and other journalists from travelling with the party’s campaign, a break from tradition.
Poilievre defends the decision arguing his campaign will have “open media access across the country” and it will be “refreshing” to hear from reporters who aren’t assigned to cover him on a regular basis.
The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois have told media outlets they will allow journalists to travel with their leaders.
You can watch CBC News special coverage of the federal election call starting with Rosemary Barton Live at 10 a.m. EST on CBCNews.ca, CBC Gem, the CBC News app, YouTube and TikTok. You can also stream the special on your local CBC streaming channel on a smart TV.
